• End of year weekly recap

    End of year weekly recap

    30th December 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 7; the seventh weekly gain in a row, bringing the total to 635, down by only 5% on the 672 of a year ago.

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  • Warm Holiday Wishes and a Brief look at 2016/2017

    Warm Holiday Wishes and a Brief look at 2016/2017

    23rd December 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 13 again this week, bringing the total to 628, down less than 10% on the 676 a year ago.

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  • OPEC Crafts Production Deficit for 2017 – But with a 2018 Production Bounce?

    OPEC Crafts Production Deficit for 2017 – But with a 2018 Production Bounce?

    16th December 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 13 this week, bringing the total to 615, now down less than 10% on the 685 a year ago.  Energy companies extended their recovery into an eight month this week as they continued to add rigs targeting oil as crude prices firmed above WTI US$50, albeit declining steadily across the week as the exuberance of a week ago waned a little. Drillers added 12 oil rigs; bring the total to 510 compared to 541 a year ago. 

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  • Ignition: US sparks a revolution in gas

    Ignition: US sparks a revolution in gas

    9th December 2016

    The onshore rig count surged 27 (5%) this week, bringing the total to 602 compared with 686 a year ago (down 13%), but up ~56% since the low in late May 2016. Rigs targeting oil jumped 21(4%), standing at 498, up 60% (183) since May.

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  • OPEC Agrees to Cut Production

    OPEC Agrees to Cut Production

    2nd December 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 5 this week, bringing the total to 570 compared with 714 a year ago (down 20%), but up over 50% since the low in late May 2016. Rigs targeting oil increased 3, standing at 474, up 49 % (158) since May.

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  • U.S. Gas Production set to Increase

    U.S. Gas Production set to Increase

    28th November 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 5 this week, bringing the total to 570 compared with 714 a year ago (down 20%), but up ~51% since the low in late May 2016. Rigs targeting oil increased 3, standing at 474, up 49 % (158) since May.

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  • Policy Changes On The Horizon ?

    Policy Changes On The Horizon ?

    18th November 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 18 this week, bringing the total to 565 compared with 727 a year ago (down 22%), but up ~50% since the low in late May 2016. Rigs targeting oil increased 19, standing at 471, up 49 % (155) since May. Of the extra 19 oil rigs, 58% (11 rigs) mobilized to the Permian Basin areas. 

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  • EIA Increase In Oil Production Just A ‘Correction’

    EIA Increase In Oil Production Just A ‘Correction’

    11th November 2016

    The onshore rig count decreased 1 this week, bringing the total to 547 compared with 734 a year ago. Rigs targeting oil increased 2, standing at 452, up 42 % (136) since bottoming out six months ago in late May. Rigs targeting gas decreased 2, bringing the total to 115, compared with 193 a year ago. 

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  • U.S. Crude Imports Surge 30%

    U.S. Crude Imports Surge 30%

    4th November 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 13 this week, bringing the total to 548 compared with 739 a year ago. Rigs targeting oil increased 9, standing at 450, up 42 % (134) since bottoming out six months ago in late May. Rigs targeting gas increased 3, bringing the total to 117, compared with 199 a year ago. 

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  • Surprise US Inventory Decline

    Surprise US Inventory Decline

    28th October 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 5 this week, bringing the total to 535 compared with 738 a year ago. Rigs targeting oil dropped 2, now standing at 441, up 40 %( 125) since bottoming out five months ago in late May. Rigs targeting gas increased 6, bring the total to 114, compared with 197 a year ago. 

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  • Producers May Emerge Stronger

    Producers May Emerge Stronger

    21st October 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 14 (11 targeting oil) this week, bringing the total to 530 compared with 749 a year ago. Rigs targeting oil added 11, standing at 443, up 40% (127) since bottoming out five months ago in late May.

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  • U.S. Crude Import Growth

    U.S. Crude Import Growth

    7th October 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 1, bringing the total to 501 compared with 763 a year ago. Rigs targeting oil added 3, standing at 428, up 35% (112) since bottoming out the week of May 22.

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  • Production Restraint Desired

    Production Restraint Desired

    30th September 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 9 (4 targeting gas), bringing the total to 500 compared with 779 a year ago. Rigs targeting oil added 7, standing at 425, up 35% (109) since bottoming out the week of May 22.

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  • Swelling Production Governs

    Swelling Production Governs

    23rd September 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 5 (3 targeting gas), bringing the total to 491 compared with 805 a year ago. Rigs targeting oil added 2, standing at 418, up 32% (102) since bottoming out the week of May 22.

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  • Production to Exceed Demand Growth

    Production to Exceed Demand Growth

    16th September 2016

    The onshore rig count decreased 4, bringing the total to 486 compared with 811 a year ago. The Permian continued its dominance in adding rigs (up 2), and now stands at 202 (all targeting oil). Rigs targeting oil added 2, standing at 416, up 32% (100) since bottoming out the week of May 22.

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  • Post 2017 Observation

    Post 2017 Observation

    9th September 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 3 (none targeting oil) for a fifteen week gain of 110 rigs (up ~30% since mid-May).  The Permian reversed its trend of adding rigs (down 2) and now stands at 200 (all targeting oil).

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  • Market Forces Continue to Prevail

    Market Forces Continue to Prevail

    2nd September 2016

    The onshore rig count increased 15 (7 targeting oil), after a single week decline, for a fourteen week gain of 107 rigs (up 28% since mid-May).  

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  • Production Stalling Out

    Production Stalling Out

    26th August 2016

    The onshore rig count reversed direction after 8 weeks of increases, but down only 1 rig, for a thirteen week gain of 92 rigs (up 25% since mid-May).  Against this the Permian continued its trend of adding oil rigs (plus 3), and now stands at 199.  Rigs targeting oil remained flat at 406, up 28% (90) since bottoming out the week of 22 May.

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  • Output Freeze, Act II

    Output Freeze, Act II

    19th August 2016

    The onshore rig count continued its upward march, increasing for the eighth consecutive week by adding 9.  This means that the increase over the past three months is now 25% (up 93), with the Permian again taking the lion’s share.  Rigs targeting oil now stand at 406, up 28% (90) since bottoming out the week of 22 May.

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  • Crude at Sea Moves Onshore

    Crude at Sea Moves Onshore

    12th August 2016

    The onshore rig count increased for a seventh consecutive week, adding 17, for an eleven week gain of 22% (up 84), with the Permian taking the lion’s share.  Rigs targeting oil now stand at 396, up 25% (80) since bottoming out the week of 22 May.    

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  • Oil Rigs Advancing

    Oil Rigs Advancing

    5th August 2016

    The onshore rig count increased for a sixth consecutive week, adding 3, for a ten week gain of 18% (up 67).  Rigs targeting oil now stand at 381, up 20% (65) since bottoming out the week of 22 May.

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  • Storing Problems

    Storing Problems

    29th July 2016

    The onshore rig count jumped for a fifth consecutive week, adding 1, and reflects a nine week gain of 17% (up 64). Rigs targeting oil, since bottoming out the week of 22 May has increased 18% (up 58) and now stands at 374. Rigs targeting oil in the Permian have increased ~26% (up 35) over the same time period and this area is growing its share of total U.S. crude production.

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  • First Half 2016 Assessment

    First Half 2016 Assessment

    22nd July 2016

    For a fourth consecutive week, the onshore rig count increased, jumping 4.2% this week (up 18) and reflects an eight week gain of 16.6% (up 63). Rigs targeting oil, since bottoming out the week of 22 May has increased 17.4 %( up 55) and now stands at 371.

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  • Early Stage of Sustainable Recovery

    Early Stage of Sustainable Recovery

    15th July 2016

    The onshore rig count continues to show positive gains, adding 4, and reflects a seven week gain of 45. Rigs targeting oil, since bottoming out the week of 22 May has increased by 41 and now stands at 357.

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  • Oil Rigs are Moving Up.

    Oil Rigs are Moving Up.

    8th July 2016

    The onshore rig count continues to move up, adding 9, and reflects a six week gain of 41. Oil rigs are up significantly by 21 the past two weeks; increasing to 351 from 330, a growth of 6%. Perhaps operators are providing an early signal that they see the need to increase or at least maintain, future US crude production.

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  • Oil Enjoyed a Great 2nd Quarter.

    Oil Enjoyed a Great 2nd Quarter.

    1st July 2016

    The onshore rig count reversed, adding 12 rigs, and reflects a five week gain of 32.  Total rig count now stands at 431 and with WTI trading in the US$47-$50 per barrel range the past seven weeks, rig count has bottomed.

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  • Crude Imports Surge and Constrain Inventory Drawdown

    Crude Imports Surge and Constrain Inventory Drawdown

    24th June 2016

    The onshore rig count reversed a three week winning trend, falling by 3, although it still reflects a four week gain of 20.  Total rig count now stands at 421 and with WTI trading in the US$45-$50 per barrel range over the past 5 weeks; a small dip should not be seen as overly negative.

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  • Demand Trumps Supply Decline

    Demand Trumps Supply Decline

    17th June 2016

    For the third week running the onshore rig count increased; this time by 10, for a three week total of 23 rigs added. By adding rigs operators would appear to be indicating that they believe in the $50 oil scenario and that, for some of them at least, this can work.

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  • Drawing a Trend from 2 Data Points …

    Drawing a Trend from 2 Data Points …

    10th June 2016

    For the second week running the onshore rig count increased; this time by 6, for a two week total of 13 rigs added.  With oil having traded above US$50 per barrel all week, there is a feeling that the decline in rigs has ended.  Sustaining oil price above US$50 per barrel will be important in cementing confidence in the market, but if this can be sustained for a while longer then expect more operators to return to the drill pads.  The spectre at this feast is Q2 2015, where even higher prices offered hope but in reality presaged nothing but more misery.  However, fundamentals are better now, and … 

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  • STATUS QUO FROM OPEC MEETING

    STATUS QUO FROM OPEC MEETING

    3rd June 2016

     The onshore rig count increased this week by 7, its first uptick since August 2015. With oil hovering around $50 per barrel, could life be set to return to U.S. onshore oil fields?  It may still be too early to call, but last week’s onshore rig count may have seen the bottom. 

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  • Crude Pierced $50 per Barrel; Turning on Supply is the Fear.

    Crude Pierced $50 per Barrel; Turning on Supply is the Fear.

    27th May 2016

    The onshore rig count was flat this week.  Crude price moved above $50 per barrel briefly; the rig bloodletting could be over and a period of stability starting. However, rig flat lining will not halt crude production decline immediately. 

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  • A Sign of the Times, Oil Price Surged in Response to Canadian Wildfires then Fell

    A Sign of the Times, Oil Price Surged in Response to Canadian Wildfires then Fell

    6th May 2016

    Overall, the onshore rig count declined this week, down 4 (1%) while conversely, across the three major oil basins, rigs reversed a six-week decline trend and increased by 1.  This begs the question: have recent oil price increases been enough to bring optimism for the future?  The outlook for commodity prices is improving and Halliburton’s CEO indicated this week that in his view the U.S. rig count may have bottomed out and will likely start to rise later this year.

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  • Confidence, Not Instant Gratification, Is What Is Required

    Confidence, Not Instant Gratification, Is What Is Required

    29th April 2016

    The onshore rig count declined this week, down 10 (3%).  While oil prices have continued to respond to the diminishing oversupply, price still remains too low - or has not been rising for long enough - to halt the decline in rigs.

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  • (As Always) Crude Price is Reacting to Supply and Demand Fundamentals

    (As Always) Crude Price is Reacting to Supply and Demand Fundamentals

    22nd April 2016

    The onshore rig count declined this week, down 7 (2%).  While oil prices have been responding to the diminishing oversupply in the market, the current oil price is still too low to halt the decline in rigs.  Despite the news out of Doha on Sunday which, as expected, caused the oil price to stutter, it continued to firm by adding US$3-4 per barrel during the week.  This principally reflects the strengthening focus on falling non-OPEC production, helping rebalance a market dogged by oversupply. 

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  • Oil Glut Is Diminishing: When – Not If – Will U.S. LTO Production Respond?

    Oil Glut Is Diminishing: When – Not If – Will U.S. LTO Production Respond?

    15th April 2016

    The onshore rig count continued its ongoing decline this week, down 6 (1.5%).  However, with oil prices having rallied in response both to the diminishing oversupply and signals ahead of the Doha meeting, it begs the question as to when will rig decline stop and (subsequently) production growth return?

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  • U.S. Supply Is A Better Price Guide Than ‘Freeze’ Talks

    U.S. Supply Is A Better Price Guide Than ‘Freeze’ Talks

    8th April 2016

    The onshore rig count continued its decline this week, albeit slightly slower and falling 6 (1.5%). We also made a triple play with onshore oil rigs, crude production, and crude inventory all declining during the same week.

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  • Turning Round A Supertanker … It Ain’t That Quick!

    Turning Round A Supertanker … It Ain’t That Quick!

    1st April 2016

    The onshore rig count saw another significant decline this week, down 12 (3%).  However, in the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston), the drop was only 2 (net) oil rigs.

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  • Capitulation by Light Tight Oil Operators as Rig Count Continues Its Descent

    Capitulation by Light Tight Oil Operators as Rig Count Continues Its Descent

    24th March 2016

    The onshore rig count saw a significant decline this week, down 13 (3%).  In the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston) there were 8 fewer oil rigs, answering the question as to whether last week was the bottom.  (Answer: not yet.)

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  • Bottoms Up!  But The Glass Will Refill More Slowly Than Some May Think …

    Bottoms Up!  But The Glass Will Refill More Slowly Than Some May Think …

    18th March 2016

    While the onshore rig count continued to decline, it slowed considerably this week, down 4 (1%). In the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston) the combined trend reversed and increased by 2 oil rigs, raising the question as to whether last week has seen the bottom – for now at least.

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  • U.S. Crude to Decline to ~8.2 MMBbl/d in 2017; Steep Drop from Record ~9.7 MMBbl/d in April 2014

    U.S. Crude to Decline to ~8.2 MMBbl/d in 2017; Steep Drop from Record ~9.7 MMBbl/d in April 2014

    11th March 2016

    The onshore rig count continued to decline this week, down 13 (3%), despite WTI trending higher and Brent trading above US$40 per barrel for the first time this year.  In the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston) the decline was 10 oil rigs (a 4.2% decline).

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  • U.S. Production and Rigs Decline while Crude Price Trends Higher

    U.S. Production and Rigs Decline while Crude Price Trends Higher

    4th March 2016

    The onshore rig count continued to decline this week, despite the WTI price trending higher.  Overall rig count was down 10 (2%), while in the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston) the decline was 10 oil rigs (a 4% decline).

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  • Saudi Arabia’s View ... Only the Strong Survive

    Saudi Arabia’s View ... Only the Strong Survive

    26th February 2016

    The onshore rig count continued to decline this week -- albeit at a slower rate -- down 14 (3%).  In the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston), the decline was 9 oil rigs (a 4% decline).

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  • “The Invisible Hand” or an OPEC Deal ... Which One Will Govern Oil Supply?

    “The Invisible Hand” or an OPEC Deal ... Which One Will Govern Oil Supply?

    19th February 2016

    The onshore rig count saw another significant decline this week, down 27 (5%) as U.S. light tight oil (LTO) operators continue to slash their 2016 capital budgets and rigs are taken off the well pad.  In the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston), the decline was 14 oil rigs (a 5% decline).  Over the past three weeks, onshore rig count has declined by 103, an average of 34 rigs per week.

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  • It’s Ugly Out There (Again!) …Despite Low and Declining Prices, LTO Operators Continue Drilling

    It’s Ugly Out There (Again!) …Despite Low and Declining Prices, LTO Operators Continue Drilling

    12th February 2016

    The onshore rig count saw another significant decline this week, down 30 (6%) as light tight oil (LTO) operator cash flows shrink and rigs are taken off the well pad.  In the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston), the drop was 13 oil rigs (a 5% decline).

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  • U.S. LTO Production ... Will It Grow or Stagnate?

    U.S. LTO Production ... Will It Grow or Stagnate?

    5th February 2016

    The onshore rig count saw a significant decline this week, down 46 (8%) as price continues to hammer light tight oil (LTO) operator cash flows.  However, in the three key oil basins (Eagle Ford, Permian, and Williston), the decline was 10 oil rigs (a 3% decline).

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  • Bakken Gets Squeezed By Low Oil Price

    Bakken Gets Squeezed By Low Oil Price

    29th January 2016

    The onshore rig count decline of 17 this week, 16 in the Permian Basin, continues to indicate the damage being inflicted on the LTO operator Balance Sheets.  With cash flow being hammered by current low price, the Permian and Williston rigs are down ~10% the past four weeks and Eagle Ford down 3% in the same time period.

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  • Sorry to Say ... But Ugly Continues

    Sorry to Say ... But Ugly Continues

    22nd January 2016

    The onshore rig count decline of 16 this week, a decline of 50 in 2016 alone, and a decline of 137 in the past three months, highlights the extreme pressure that the latest fall in oil prices is having on U.S. activity.  Rigs targeting oil declined 5 this week (23 in 2016 and 79 in the past three months).  U.S. LTO operators continue to focus on their very best areas to drill and laydown rigs in small bites weekly, with at least one significant operator announcing this week that it does not plan any wells at all in 2016.

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  • Still Ugly …

    Still Ugly …

    15th January 2016

    The onshore rig count declined 13 this week.  Despite oil tumbling below US$30 a barrel on Friday, rigs targeting oil increased by 2.  U.S. LTO operators continue to withstand low prices and focus on their best areas to drill.

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  • Ugly Start To 2016

    Ugly Start To 2016

    8th January 2016

    The onshore rig count decided to mirror the oil price this week, declining 6% (down 36), with rigs targeting oil declining 4% (down 19).  A decline of this size was last seen during the first week of December 2015.  WTI ended the week at under US$33 a barrel (down 11%), a price level not seen since 2002.  Notwithstanding, U.S. production refuses to be flattened by low price pressures and the continued rig decline, with EIA data indicating that 55,000 barrels per day was added over the past four-week period.

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